ICC World Cup 2023 Qualification Scenarios: Here’s how Sri Lanka can still qualify for semi-final

The Sri Lankan team hasn’t had a good start to their ICC World Cup 2023 campaign. They started with their two leading players Dushmantha Chameera and Wanindu Hasaranga missing out due to injuries. As a result, the Lankan Lions conceded the highest-ever World Cup total against South Africa. South Africa hammered them in their first World Cup 2023 match, notching up 428/5 in Delhi batting first.

Kusal Mendis and Charith Asalanka tried their best, but the target was too much for them to chase down. Sri Lanka could only muster 326 runs and lost by 102 runs. In their next match against Pakistan in Hyderabad, Kusal Mendis and Sadeera Samarawickrama hit sublime centuries to take Sri Lanka to 344 runs after batting first. However, Pakistan created a World Cup record by chasing this highest total ever down thanks to centuries from Abdullah Shafique and Mohammad Rizwan.    

Sri Lanka’s biggest problem was their pace bowling attack which lacked both experience and skills despite having the likes of Kasun Rajitha and Lahiru Kumara. Matheesha Pathirana went for over 90 runs in both the matches he played against South Africa and Pakistan. In what was a must-win game for Lankans against Australia in Lucknow, the openers Pathum Nissanka and Kusal Perera gave their team a perfect start. The pair added 125 runs in 21 overs and scored a half-century each.

They were 157/1 at one stage but lost their last 9 wickets for 50-odd runs to be bundled out for 209 runs. This was not enough to contain the aggressive Australia batting lineup, despite the loss of a few early wickets of David Warner and Steve Smith. Mitch Marsh and Josh Inglis hammered fifties to take Australia home by 5 wickets, registering their first win of the Cricket World Cup in 3 matches.  

How can Sri Lanka still make it into the ICC World Cup 2023 semi-finals?

This loss proved devastating for Sri Lanka, as this meant they are yet to open their account after three matches in the ODI World Cup 2023. Not only this, their net run rate also took a hit and is now -1.532. They sit in the second-last position on the CWC 2023 points table, just above the Netherlands. Given that the ODI World Cup 2023 is a ten-team tournament and each team has to play 9 matches each, Sri Lanka still in with a chance to make it into the semi-finals.

Each team needs to win at least 6 matches to be in the race for the semis. While 7 wins will more or less confirm a spot in the final four. First, to have a chance to get into the final four, Sri Lanka will have to win all six of their remaining matches. Sri Lanka will face the Netherlands, England, Afghanistan, India, Bangladesh, and New Zealand in their remaining matches. Out of this, Sri Lanka will fancy their chances of winning against Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and the Netherlands. 

Amid winning against these teams, Sri Lanka will need to ensure that they improve their net run rate as well. The Kusal Mendis-led side will need to play very well against top sides like India, England, and New Zealand in their other three matches for an outside chance of qualification. New Zealand, in the 2019 World Cup, qualified for the semi-final with 11 points but there were four rain washouts in that tournament. This helped Kiwis to qualify for the final four.

Also Check: ICC Cricket World Cup 2023 Points Table

However, this seems unlikely in the 2023 World Cup in India. But it is a scenario that might help Sri Lanka in their mission to make it into the knockouts. In conclusion, Sri Lanka has to deal with two main things. First win all of their remaining six matches, anyhow to remain in contention for the semifinals.

The second thing is that with six wins to their name, Sri Lanka will need a massively positive net run rate to push their way into the top four. This can only happen if they beat at least three teams dominantly. Sri Lanka cannot afford to lose another match or their chances for semi-finals will reduce drastically.