IPL 2025 Qualification Scenarios: How can Chennai Super Kings still qualify for playoffs after loss against SRH?

Prior to the onset of the ongoing edition of the Indian Premier League, there were a lot of expectations from Chennai Super Kings to dominate the league considering the kind of mega auction they had ahead of the season. They were quite arguably one of the strongest sides on paper coming into the 18th edition of the marquee T20 tournament.

However, IPL 2025 has unfolded completely opposite to how everyone anticipated. The five-time champions have been able to win only two of their nine matches in the season so far. Their most-recent loss against runners-up, Sunrisers Hyderabad, at the MA Chidambaram Stadium, by five wickets has further intensified their plight.

As of April 26, CSK are positioned rock bottom in the points table. Nine matches in and their net run rate is understandably the least amongst all the other teams (-1.302). The Men in Yellow have made their way to the playoffs 12 times in their 16-season history. Below are the fundamental requirements for teams to ensure playoff qualification, the franchise's remaining matches, and possible pathways through which CSK can still make it through to the top four of the league.

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Basic Requirements for Playoff Qualification

The IPL has strictly adhered to a 10-team format since 2022. Since then, the following trends have been observed:

• 16 points (8 wins): Virtually through to the playoff phase.
• 14 points (7 wins): Still a likelihood to make it through. However, that depends on NRR in addition to how other results pan out (example: RCB in 2024).
• 12 points (6 wins): Quite uncommon. Only once has a team with a 12-point tally made it through to the playoffs (SRH in 2019).

CSK's next matches

The MS Dhoni-led side has a total of five games ahead of them. The fixture list is as follows:

• vs PBKS: Chennai, April 30, 7:30 pm
• vs RCB: Bengaluru, May 3, 7:30 pm
• vs KKR: Kolkata, May 7, 7:30 pm
• vs RR: Chennai, May 12, 7:30 pm
• vs GT: Ahmedabad, May 18, 3:30 pm

Qualification Scenarios

• Have to win all five of their remaining fixtures

In the case of CSK emerging victorious in their remaining games: 

Total Wins: 2 (current) + 5 = 7

Total Points: 4 (current) + 10 = 14

• Important for significant enhancement of NRR

Other than getting to the 14-point mark, it is crucial for CSK to boost their NRR to a comparatively bettter number. This is due to there being a genuine possibility of other teams obtaining 14 points.

CSK will probably have to win all their games by a healthy margin (say a minimum of 30-40 runs or with four-five overs in the bank) for their NRR to elevate to a positive-valued figure.

• Will have to depend on other teams' results 

Not only will CSK need to maintain a spotless run, but they will also have to bank on other teams to do them a favour. Teams like MI, PBKS, and LSG would have to lose their games to keep their final points tally to 14 or below. 

The best-case scenario would be for various teams to end up on 12 points, which would ensure CSK to secure the fourth spot after getting to 14 points at the end of the league phase.

CSK will gain from MI, PBKS, and LSG losing at least two-three of their remaining games.

Ahead of Match 44, GT, DC, and RCB have already established themselves quite significantly with each of the teams on 12 points apiece. Them losing won't affect CSK's chances a lot.

They would also have to hope sides like KKR, SRH, and RR engineer a massive upset against teams like MI, PBKS, and LSG.

Note: If CSK lose any of their remaining games from this point, it would mean their mathematical elimination from the competition.