IPL 2025 Qualification Scenarios: How can Rajasthan Royals still qualify for playoffs after loss against RCB?

Rajasthan Royals' (RR) hopes of reaching the playoffs are hanging by a thread after they suffered their fifth consecutive defeat and seventh overall in the 2025 edition of the Indian Premier League (IPL) on Thursday, April 24. They lost to the Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB), failing to close out a run chase yet again. Chasing a target of 206 at the M Chinnaswamy Stadium, RR were restricted to 194/9. This was after they needed 18 runs to win off the last two overs with five wickets in the bank.

Virat Kohli and Devdutt Padikkal starred with the bat for RCB after RR captain Riyan Parag won the toss and decided to field first. Kohli and Padikkal smashed 70 (42) and 50 (27), respectively, to set up a brilliant platform for the big-hitting finishers to follow. Tim David (23) and Jitesh Sharma (20*) helped RCB breach the 200-run mark with some phenomenal hits in the death overs.

In reply, Yashasvi Jaiswal got RR off to a dazzling start with his 19-ball 49. Vaibhav Suryavanshi, Nitish Rana, and Parag threw away solid starts to their innings. Dhruv Jurel (47) tried his best to take RR home, but he didn't get too much help from his partners. Josh Hazlewood bowled a sensational penultimate over, conceding just one run and picking up two wickets. After the Australian pacer turned the game on its head and finished with staggering figures of 4/33, Yash Dayal completed the formalities by giving away just five runs in the last over.

Basic Requirements for Playoff Qualification

The IPL has strictly followed a 10-team format since 2022. Since then, the following trends have been observed:

• 16 points (8 wins): Almost ensured a place in the playoffs.
• 14 points (7 wins): An outside chance to make it to the top four. However, that depends on the NRR as well as how other results pan out (for example, RCB in 2024).
• 12 points (6 wins): Quite rare. Only once has a team with 12 points gone on to compete in the playoffs (SRH in IPL 2019).

Remaining Matches for RR

The Rajasthan Royals have a total of five games remaining. The fixture list is as follows:

• vs GT: Jaipur, April 28, 7:30 pm
• vs MI: Jaipur, May 1, 7:30 pm
• vs KKR: Kolkata, May 4, 3:30 pm
• vs CSK: Chennai, May 12, 7:30 pm
• vs PBKS: Jaipur, May 16, 7:30 pm

Qualification Scenarios

Scenario 1: RR win five of their remaining games

Total Wins: 2 (current) + 5 = 7

Total Points: 4 (current) + 10 = 14

Outcome: If the inaugural champions manage to win their last five games, they’ll finish with 14 points. However, it likely won’t be sufficient to guarantee a playoff spot in IPL 2025. They will have a mathematical chance of progressing to the last-four stage in the competition. However, the main challenge will be to not only win but win with a good margin to boost their NRR. 

Also Check: IPL Points Table 2025 | Latest & Updated

Scenario 2: RR win four out of their remaining five games

Total Wins: 2 (current) + 4 = 6

Total Points: 4 (current) + 8 = 12

Outcome: The probability of finishing in the fourth position with six wins this season is nil. With the top six teams already having 10 or above points in their kitty, RR will have no chance of progressing beyond the round-robin phase of the tournament. However, they can spoil the party for a few of the franchises who are in a better position to make it to the next round.