Champions Trophy 2025: Pakistan's Qualification Scenarios – Can Pakistan qualify after losing to India?

Pakistan lost to India by six wickets in Match 5 of the ongoing Champions Trophy 2025 at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium on February 23 to complicate their qualification chances. The much-anticipated clash had already garnered significant hype ahead of the tournament, and even more after the two sides' respective first games of the tournament.

While India won their game by a comfortable six-wicket margin against Bangladesh, it was not a pleasant start to the tournament for Pakistan, who are hosting their first ICC event after 29 years. They were convincingly overpowered by 60 runs by New Zealand. That result made the ongoing fixture a must-win for Pakistan.

Also Check: IND vs PAK Live Updates, Match 5

Pakistan’s qualification scenarios if they lose to India:

Scenario 1: NZ lose against BAN, PAK win against BAN, IND lose against NZ

• Pakistan and Bangladesh will have two points each.
• India and New Zealand will qualify with four points.

Scenario 2: NZ lose against BAN, PAK win against BAN, IND win against NZ

• Pakistan, Bangladesh, and New Zealand will be tied at two points each.
• India will qualify with six points.
• Pakistan must have a better net run rate than both Bangladesh and New Zealand to qualify.

Scenario 3: NZ win against BAN, PAK win against BAN, IND lose against NZ

• Pakistan will have two points.
• Bangladesh will finish winless.
• New Zealand will top the group with six points, qualifying alongside India.

Scenario 4: NZ win against BAN, PAK win against BAN, IND win against NZ

• Pakistan will have two points.
• Bangladesh will finish without a win.
• India and New Zealand will qualify.

Pakistan’s must-win situation

Hence, it is quite clear that the Indo-Pak game is a do-or-die for Pakistan to stay alive in the tournament.