India vs Australia Champions Trophy 2025 Semifinal: What is the probability of losing a toss 14 times in a row?

Rohit Sharma’s unbelievable streak of bad luck with the coin toss has become a major topic of conversation at this point in cricket. He lost the toss for the 11th consecutive time, while as a country, this was the 14th time India were on the losing side of the toss. Notably, this also includes the crucial semi-final game against Australia in the ICC Champions Trophy 2025. While this might seem difficult to gulp in, looking at the part it is mathematically possible, though very rare. The feasibility of losing tosses 14 times in a row is just 0.0061% or a 1 in 16,384 chance.  

This streak has brought a contrast to Brian Lara’s record of losing tosses 12 consecutive times and Peter Borren losing it 11 times. Despite this bizarre run, India has shown great performance, winning all three group-stage games with the disadvantage of not getting a chance to choose whether to bat or bowl first.  

Aakash Chopra the former cricketer and commentator highlighted the importance of winning the toss in high-stake games, specifically in the Dubai conditions. At this pitch, historically, the teams batting first have always done well, particularly when they put up scores above 250. While India managed to overcome the toss disadvantage in the group stage, the semi-final against a strong team like Australia is a whole different ball game.  

Rohit Sharma, nevertheless, has taken the situation simply, even funnily saying that that he has “sworn not to win the toss but also not to lose the match.” This shows his confidence in India’s capability to perform despite the toss results which has been crucial. Experts agree that while the toss can give a strategic edge, a team’s outlook towards the game and execution matters more in the end.  

Cricket is uncertain, and luck plays a vital role, but talent and approach ultimately decide the outcome. Whether Rohit’s streak of losing the toss continues or finally ends, his leadership and India’s strong performances have proven that success is not just about the coin flip—it’s about how a team plays the game.

When you are in two minds, it is better to lose the toss: Sharma

Interestingly, after losing the toss, Rohit Sharma was of the view that sometimes when a skipper was unsure of how a pitch may behave, it is always good to lose a toss and have a target in sight. By this he indicated that India will be happier to bat second as in Dubai, there are various kinds of strips and it depends on which track was used on the match day. Besides, he also added that it was always challenging still to play in these playing conditions.

Also Read: Why are Matthew Short and Spencer Johnson not playing Champions Trophy2025 semi-final between India vs Australia?

Quite incredibly, it has been a lucky call every time for India at the toss in terms of results. Notably, in the ongoing Champions Trophy, the Men in Blue have won all their matches despite not winning the toss. Now only time will tell whether losing the toss in a big Champions Trophy semifinal against Australia will turn out to be a stroke of luck or not.

"I was prepared to do both. The wickets have played differently. When you are in two minds it is better to lose the toss. We have played three games here, and each time we have played, it has something different. The pitch keeps changing its nature. Each pitch has its own way. The slower bowlers have been great. That is why we are going with the same team," said Rohit at the toss.