India's qualification scenario for WTC final after South Africa’s loss to Australia in 1st Test

The first Test between India and Bangladesh at Chittagong ended in favour of the visitors. Stand-in captain KL Rahul led the team to a 188-run victory on Sunday, December 18. Brilliant performances by batters Cheteshwar Pujara and Shubman Gill, followed by bowling masterclass from Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Siraj and Axar Patel helped India take a 1-0 lead in the two-match series.

With the win, India jumped to third place in the World Test Championship and replaced Sri Lanka at that spot. Soon after India’s victory, Australia defeated South Africa on just the second day of their Test match. The Proteas had been placed second on the points table for a very long time, but their loss changed the WTC scenario.

South Africa dropped down to third place after deductions in their points and, as a result, India received a major boost as they jumped one place up to No. 2. India, who aim to make their way into the WTC Finals, are currently competing with Australia and South Africa in the points table. For India to qualify for the summit clash next year, a few scenarios need to land in India’s favor.

What are India’s chances of qualification now?

1. India need to defeat Bangladesh by 2-0 to remain in the race. After the magnificent victory in the first game, India are already leading the series 1-0 and they need to win the final game as well. India clinched a win without the services of their key players like regular skipper Rohit Sharma, pacer Jasprit Bumrah, and all-rounder Ravindra Jadeja. Thus, the upcoming contest will be of equal importance.
   
   
2. India’s next Test outing will be against Australia. The Rohit Sharma-led Indian team will host Pat Cummins and Co. for a four-match series next year, which will also be the last Test series for India in the ongoing WTC 2021-23 cycle. India can not afford a loss moving forward and thus they need to win the series either by 4-0 or 3-0 to be in contention.
   
   
3. Australia are currently hosting South Africa in a three-match Test series. Having concluded the first Test within just two days, the Aussies will be flying high when the two sides meet next for the Boxing-Day Test. India would hope for South Africa to lose the remaining matches as well. In that case, India will have an upper hand over the Proteas. And, if India defeat Australia in the home series next year, they will achieve the qualification mark of 64.35%, which will likely hand them a place in the WTC Finals.