T20 World Cup 2024: Qualification Scenarios - What does Afghanistan's victory over Australia mean for semi-finals race?

Afghanistan's triumphed over Australia in the Super Eight as the champions of the 2021 edition faltered dramatically. This astonishing outcome was orchestrated by an exceptional performance from Player of the Match, Gulbadin Naib, whose career-best T20I figures paved the way for a truly historic victory - Afghanistan's first over Australia in any format.

Afghanistan's victory keeps their hopes for a semi-final berth alive, and has introduced a significant twist to the Super 8s Group standings Group 1. Currently, India lead the Group 1 of the Super 8s, having secured victories in both of their matches. Conversely, Australia and Afghanistan each have one win from their two encounters, while Bangladesh have suffered defeat in both their games. 

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For India, a triumph over Australia in their final Super 8s game would secure their advancement, but a defeat could complicate matters, particularly if the margin is substantial. Despite India's formidable net run rate of +2.425, cricket remains a sport where unpredictability reigns supreme. 

Australia, with a net run rate of +0.223, faces a critical encounter against India. This match is a must-win for the Aussies, as a loss to the Rohit Sharma-led group will end their campaign in the T20 World Cup 2024. Should Australia be defeated by India and Afghanistan triumph over Bangladesh in their subsequent match, Afghanistan would advance to the semi-finals alongside India.

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For Afghanistan which possess a net run rate of -0.650, securing a victory against Bangladesh is critical to qualify for the semi-finals. However, they can qualify even after losing to Bangladesh as long as the margin is narrow one and India beat Australia by a substantial margin.

For Bangladesh, the outlook appears grim as they are yet to secure a victory in the Super 8s. With a net run rate of -2.489, the Bangla Tigers must not only defeat Afghanistan by a substantial margin, but also rely on India to overcome Australia by a significant gap.