Women's T20 World Cup 2024: India's Qualification Scenarios for Knockout Stages

Cricket battles are getting more intense with the Women's T20 World Cup 2024, as the group stage nears its end. India Women are in a tricky yet hopeful position at this point in the tournament.

Notably, after a shaky start, the Women in Blue have found their way back into semi-final contention. India Women had a tough start as they suffered a 58-run loss to New Zealand in their opener, severely damaging their net run rate (NRR). However, the team bounced back with crucial victories against Pakistan and an 82-run win over Sri Lanka, which significantly helped their Net Run Rate (NRR) from -1.217 to +0.576.

Their upcoming match against Australia on Sunday, at the Sharjah Cricket Stadium will be quite crucial. A win against the defending champions would give the Harmanpreet Kaur-led side the best chance to qualify, potentially securing six points and a spot in the knockouts. But interestingly, another calculation also comes into play.

India Women will lock horns with Australia Women in Sharjah

If the Indian side manages to beat Australia by a margin of more than 61 runs in case they can post 150 runs on the board, then they will leapfrog the Women in Yellow in terms of NRR to secure an automatic semifinal berth. However, qualification scenarios are tough. Even if India defeat Australia, they may find themselves in a three-way tie with the Aussies and New Zealand. The key reason is that if India fail to win against Australia by a margin of less than 60 runs, then New Zealand will have a less stiff task in terms of margin to beat Pakistan.

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Moreover, if India concedes a defeat against Australia, in that case even if Pakistan beat New Zealand by a margin of just one run, then the Kiwis will still march ahead to the semifinal, while India will be ousted from the semifinal contention. Besides, in another possibility, should New Zealand lose at least one of their games, it can create a potential four-way tie on four points between India, New Zealand, Pakistan, and Australia. In that scenario, India's better NRR (currently at +0.576) compared to Pakistan (+0.555) and New Zealand (-0.050) could be important.

However, the Kiwis have the opportunity to improve their NRR as they have two more games to play. The most favourable outcome for India would be a win against Australia along with losses for both New Zealand and Pakistan in their remaining matches. This would secure India's qualification based on points alone, eliminating the NRR factor.