WTC Final: Qualification scenarios for all teams in contention

The race to the final of the 2023-25 cycle of the World Test Championship has just intensified after the recent results which have gone down in the past. There have been three Tests, which concluded in the past week. The outcomes of the games have made the dash to the showdown increasingly high-octane. All of New Zealand, England, Bangladesh, and the West Indies are already out of the running for a spot in the final. 

With the top two on the points table assured to be playing the WTC final at Lord's next year, below is a brief overview of the qualification scenarios for all the participants holding a chance to make it to the mega event in 2025.

South Africa (Current PCT - 63.33%)

The dominant whitewash which South Africa handed Sri Lanka have propelled them to the top of the standings, as of December 9, 2024. They are yet to face Pakistan in a similar two-match series at home. To book a sure shot place in the final, all they require is one win. If at all they lose one game of the series with the margin ending up as 1-1, the percentage would drop down to 61.11%. However, in that case, only India or Australia would be in a position to get past them.

In the case of both the Tests ending in a stalemate, the Proteas would end up with a PCT (points percentage) of 58.33%. If South Africa somehow were to lose the series 1-0, they would be hoping for Australia to not win more than two of their remaining five Tests in the cycle, or India to not obtain more than a win and a draw from their three Tests.

Australia (Current PCT - 60.71%)

The defending champions require a couple of wins in the remainder of the ongoing Border-Gavaskar Trophy to be assured of a place in the final. This would place them higher than both India (53.51%) and Sri Lanka (53.85%) and beneath South Africa, even they went on to lose both their Tests in Sri Lanka.

Australia would require to win both their Tests in the island nation only if they were to to lose 2-3 to India. Else, they would have to hope that the Proteeas don't draw more than one game against Pakistan. In that case, Australia would be through even with a win and a draw in Sri Lanka.

Sri Lanka (Current PCT - (45.45%)

Winning both their Tests against Australia would see Sri Lanka finish with a PCT of 53.85%. This, in turn, would force them to bank on other results; Australia to win the BGT by a 2-1 margin, and for South Africa to lose both their Tests against Pakistan. The likelihood of both these instances unfolding seem quite improbable, though.

Pakistan (Current PCT - 33.33%)

Only a mathematical chance exists for Pakistan. This probability also takes into account South Africa getting a point deducted due to over-rate. Even if Pakistan win their remaining games (two against South Africa and as many against the West Indies), they would still finish on a PCT of 52.38%.

If South Africa were to lose the aforementioned point, they would have their PCT deducted from 52.78% to 52.08%. A spate of other results also have to go Pakistan's way, implying that they are out of the race in almost all likelihood.

India (Current PCT - 57.29%)

To be guaranteed of a place in what could be their third straight final, India would require at least two wins and a draw in their remaining Tests Down Under. This string of results would take them to a PCT of 60.63%, with a commitment of a second place finish behind South Africa. Australia will still finish beneath India if the latter win the series 2-3 and Australia ending up with a 2-0 win in Sri Lanka. 

The only scenario where Australia, Sri Lanka, and South Africa can all surpass India is if they were to lose 3-2. The chances of qualification in that circumstance would be grim; South Africa would have to lose both Tests against Pakistan, with the hope that Australia get at least one draw in Sri Lanka.