What will happen to India's WTC chances if they lose the upcoming Test matches against Australia?

The Indian team got off to a stellar start to the ongoing Border-Gavaskar Trophy 2024-25. Taking on Australia in the first Test of the series at the Optus Stadium in Perth, the visiting side managed to register a mammoth 295-run victory against the hosts. India’s chances of qualification to the WTC final in 2025 looked like a distant dream. 

However, with a resounding win in Perth, that fire has been ignited once more. With the upcoming second Test in Adelaide holding special significance for both Australia and India, there have been many discussions over what would happen if the Indian team goes on to lose the upcoming Test matches in Australia.

Simply put, if India go on to lose the upcoming clashes in the BGT 2024-25, they would not qualify for the final of the World Test Championship next year. For the Indian team, their qualification scenario is heavily dependent on the fixtures of Sri Lanka and South Africa, as well as their position on the WTC 2023-25 Points Table.

For a direct route to the final, India will have to maximise their points in the standings, which means winning as many games as possible. As for Australia, the side will look to strengthen their position in the standings as well.

How can India actually qualify for WTC Final?

Talking about India’s qualification, after New Zealand’s recent Test match loss to England, Rohit Sharma and his men will directly qualify for the final if they win the BGT by the score of 5-0, 4-0, 3-0, or 4-1.

Furthermore, India will also qualify if they win the series 3-1 and South Africa goes on to defeat Sri Lanka in the 2nd Test at home. Another scenario states that India will qualify with a score of 3-2 in the BGT as well, but that would require Sri Lanka drawing at least one Test against the Aussies. 

In another scenario, Rohit Sharma’s men could qualify for the WTC final even if they draw the BGT 2024-25 by 2-2. However, that would require South Africa defeating Sri Lanka across both Tests and Sri Lanka going on to defeat Australia in the series.