ICC World Cup 2019: Semi-final qualification scenarios for India, Pakistan, New Zeland, Bangladesh and England

India:

Indian team’s berth is more or less confirmed among the semi-finalists having won five of the seven matches they played. Their run-rate of 0.854 is well ahead of the four teams that are expected to finish on 11 points. India will confirm their semi-final spot if they win one more matches and are likely finish in the top two.

They will have a chance to go through even if they end up losing the remaining match against Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Since India play on the last day of the league phase against the Lankans, they will have the advantage of knowing the exact requirement in the worst case scenario that they lose to Bangladesh.

How can India get knocked out by NRR if they are levelled on 11 points with New Zealand or one of Pakistan and Bangladesh?

By New Zealand – Team India has to lose the remaining matches by a collective margin of 100 runs (50 + 50 runs) and New Zealand lose their fixture against England by 45 or fewer runs.

If India’s collective margin of the defeats is 150 or more runs, New Zealand will go through if they keep their defeat against England to single digits.

By Pakistan – India has to lose the remaining two games by a collective margin of 300 runs (150 + 150 runs) and Pakistan has to beat Bangladesh by 200 runs.

By Bangladesh – India and Bangladesh are separated by approximately 300 runs at the moment. Since both the teams face off in the next game, Bangladesh has to win that by as big a margin as possible. If Bangladesh beat them by 75+ runs, they need to beat Pakistan by 75 runs and hope Sri Lanka has similar winning margin against India later on.