Indian Premier League 2017 - Playoffs scenarios

The 10th edition of the Indian Premier League held the scare the 4 sides qualifying for playoffs confirmed the earliest in the league history but Kings XI Punjab winning their previous two games narrowly ensured the fight stayed on. After 51 matches in the season, only Mumbai Indians have managed to confirm their berth in the top 4.

Royal Challengers Bangalore, Gujarat Lions and the Delhi Daredevils are no longer in the race for qualification. For the remaining 3 spots, Rising Pune Supergiant, Kolkata Knight Riders, Sunrisers Hyderabad and Kings XI Punjab will be fighting it out in the next couple of days.

Out of the 5 remaining games, four of them possess significance expect the final league game between the knocked-out sides, Delhi and Bangalore. The 4 games will be crucial in deciding the positions of the teams while Mumbai, Kolkata and Pune will be aiming a top 2 finish.

Here we look at all the possible scenarios for the teams having a shot at the top 4 finish in this IPL season.

Mumbai Indians:

For top 2 finish:

Mumbai Indians raced to 9 wins in their first 11 games to seal their playoffs seat but have lost their previous two encounters which might have slimed their chances of finishing in top 2 and a chance of playing the Qualifier 1 at their home Wankhede.

However, there is no need for them to panic at the moment as Kolkata Knight Riders and Rising Pune Supergiant are the only teams who can shatter the Mumbai’s dream of a home qualifier.

In the case of Mumbai winning in their final league game over the Knight Riders, the MI side might even finish on the top of the table. However, in case they lose the final game, MI would be hoping Pune lose one their remaining two games and at the same time, they should ensure their own NRR doesn’t drop. MI currently have the best NRR among all the teams with +0.810 while RPS’ is -0.060. Unless Pune win big and MI are thumped by say 100+ runs margins, the top 2 finish for MI seems to be likely with three teams (MI, RPS and KKR) ending up with 18 points each.

Even if RPS win both their games, MI should ensure they don’t lose by a margin more than 10 runs (If they chase 150) over the Kolkata Knight Riders so that their NRR remains slightly ahead of that of KKR.

Rising Pune Supergiant:

For qualifying:

Among the 4 teams fighting for the remaining 3 playoffs spots, Rising Pune Supergiant has the best shot with 16 points in their bag and two matches still to be played. All Pune need to do is win one of their remaining two games. If they lose both their remaining games, they will need to hope that Sunrisers lose in their final league match or Kolkata should lose by a record margin (say 200 runs) against Mumbai.

For top 2 finish:

If Pune manages to win their remaining games, they will be finishing in the top two and gain the chance of playing in Qualifier 1. If they manage to win only one, they would hope MI defeat KKR. A KKR win in the KKR-MI match might not help Pune since RPS need themselves and KKR to win by huge margins. (say 100+ run margins)

Kolkata Knight Riders:

For qualifying:

All Kolkata Knight Riders need is one among Kings XI Punjab and Sunrisers Hyderabad to lose their final league game or Rising Pune Supergiant lose both their remaining games. If they manage to win their final league game over Mumbai Indians, they will confirm their playoffs berth irrespective of the other teams’ results.

For top 2 finish:

KKR will need to win by a margin bigger than 10 runs (if they score 150) over the Mumbai Indians if the Rising Pune Supergiant wins in their remaining two games. If KKR can’t obtain the desired margin, they will have to hope for RPS to lose one of their remaining games.

Even if KKR doesn’t win their final league game, they need the following results to go their way:

RPS v DD – DD win

GL v SRH – GL win

KXIP v RPS – KXIP win

This puts a tie in the points of the Kolkata, Pune and Punjab and the team with higher NRR finishes at second behind MI. Currently, KKR’s NRR is quite higher than the other two and they will need to ensure it doesn’t come down substantially.

Sunrisers Hyderabad:

For qualifying:

For the playoffs qualification, Sunrisers Hyderabad doesn’t need any NRR scenarios as they have got odd points in their bag due to the washout over the RCB earlier in the season. For them to qualify, they will need to win their final game vs Gujarat Lions. If they end up on the losing side, they need to depend on Rising Pune Supergiant side to defeat Kings XI Punjab.

For top 2 finish:

To even have a chance of finishing in the top, SRH will need to win their final league game over the Gujarat Lions. At the same time, they would be hoping the Rising Pune Supergiant and Kolkata Knight Riders lose the remaining games.

Kings XI Punjab:

For qualifying:

Kings XI Punjab now not only need to win their final league game but depend upon the results of the remaining games as well. Either Sunrisers or Knight Riders must lose their final league match or the Supergiant should be defeated in their remaining two (one of them is against KXIP). If KXIP gets only KKR game’s result going their way, they will hope KKR lose by a big margin against MI and improve their NRR in the final league game over RPS. Since KXIP play last they will have a chance of achieving the required NRR.

For top 2 finish:

Kings XI Punjab, who currently have only 14 points still have a chance to finish among the top 2 but will need some luck to go their way. For KXIP, Pune, Kolkata and Hyderabad should lose their remaining games and KXIP should win their final league game. In this case, KXIP will be at equal points along with KKR and RPS. Pune’s NRR is already below KXIP – KKR’s is at +0.729 while KXIP’s has a NRR of +0.296. The Punjab side would need to win by a big margin and hope KKR lose in a similar fashion.