Semi-final qualification scenario in the World T20 2016

Super 10 stage of the World T20 2016 is moving towards the business end with only 5 more games left to be played. Group 1 is evenly poised with only Afghanistan been knocked out of semis race while West Indies have made into semis with 3 wins in 3 games. England, South Africa and Sri Lanka are now fighting out for the remaining one spot.

The Group 2 was considered to be “Group of Death” with hosts India, New Zealand, Australia, Pakistan, and Bangladesh placed in it. Some unexpected results put the hot favorites India into a struggling situation while consistent performances from New Zealand made them the first team to book a semis spot. On the other hand, Bangladesh and Pakistan are out of contention. India and Australia will be facing each out in a virtual quarter final to grab the remaining one spot in Group 2.

Here we look at all the possible scenarios left for each of the 5 teams fighting out for 2 semifinal spots across both the groups in this WT20 2016.

World T20 2016 – Scenarios:

Group 2:

India:

For India, the equation for making it into semis is very simple now. They need to defeat Australia in their last league match irrespective of the margin of win. However a washout won’t help India as their NRR is behind Australia’s NRR.

Due to their poor Net run rate, India will be finishing Group 2 as runner-ups. If they manage a huge win vs Australia and Bangladesh do same vs New Zealand, India can even end as Group toppers.

Australia:

Australia also have their chances of making into semis in their hands. They need to defeat India irrespective of margin of win. A big margin win vs India with a bigger margin win for Bangladesh over New Zealand can help the Aussies to finish as Group toppers.

If Australia’s game vs India gets washed out, they will make into the semi-finals ahead of India with better NRR.

Group 1:

England:

With 2 wins in 3 games played, England are just a step away of making into semis. They have to defeat Sri Lanka in their final match.

If they lose against Sri Lanka, they are out of WT20 since their NRR is very near to Sri Lanka’s NRR and way less than South Africa’s.

If England lose against Sri Lanka even by a small margin, their NRR will be same as Sri Lanka’s. Since Sri Lanka will have 4 points after the win and South Africa has 2 points, England will need South Africa to defeat Sri Lanka. Due to their higher NRR, South Africa will make into semis ahead of England and Sri Lanka. Hence England have to win their final game at any cost.

Even if England’s game gets washed out, they will have a chance to make into semis. If South Africa wins against Sri Lanka or Sri Lanka defeats South Africa by a minute margin, England will make into semis in that case.

If both England-Sri Lanka and South Africa-Sri Lanka matches get washed out, England will make into semis as runners up of Group 1.

South Africa:

South Africa so far has lost 2 close games out of the 3 they have played. However a big win vs Afghanistan lifted up their NRR. Due to that big win they are currently positioned at 3rd in their group. They play against Sri Lanka in their final league game which will be a do-or-die for them.

South Africa’s scenarios:

If South Africa lose in their final game even after Sri Lanka beats England, they will end up live tweeting the knockouts instead of playing.

Sri Lanka:

Sri Lanka have won 1 and lost 1 with 2 more games to be played. If they win their remaining 2 games vs England and South Africa respectively, they will be making it to the semis without the question of NRR.

Scenario for Sri Lanka if they win against England and lose to South Africa: