Syed Mushtaq Ali Trophy 2019-20: Semi-final scenarios ahead of the final day of Super League matches

The Super League stage of the Syed Mushtaq Ali T20 Trophy is set to end on Wednesday where eight teams will be in action in search of a spot in the semi-finals. The Group A team Haryana is the only side to have sealed their semi-final berth among the ten teams across both the Groups. Karnataka still not have confirmed their spot in the knockouts even being on the top of Group B with three wins.

However, Punjab and Jharkhand in Group B are the only teams that are officially out of the semis race. Tamil Nadu and Mumbai are in the semi-final fight alongside Karnataka from Group B. When it comes to Group A, the race is between Baroda, Delhi, Rajasthan and Maharashtra. Haryana has sealed their top spot with three wins while Baroda is the only other side to have won more than one game in that Group.

Here we look at all the qualification scenarios for the final day in the Super League phase:

(Note: Head-to-Head record in the tournament is considered ahead of NRR)

Scenarios in Group B:

1. Karnataka:

Having played all their four matches, Karnataka will be limited as spectators on the final day of Super League. The only scenario that will stop Karnataka from being part of knockouts is the big wins for both Tamil Nadu and Mumbai.

Tamil Nadu requires to beat Jharkhand by at least 33 runs or have to complete the chase with 20+ balls to spare for moving past Karnataka’s NRR. At the same time, Mumbai has to beat Punjab by at least 88 runs or finish the chase in less than ten overs.

2. Tamil Nadu:

The result of Tamil Nadu’s match against Jharkhand will be irrelevant if Mumbai loses to Punjab. All Mumbai, Punjab and Tamil Nadu will be tied on 4 points if Jharkhand also beats Tamil Nadu. In the head-to-head scenario, Tamil Nadu goes through as they defeated both Punjab and Mumbai.

There is an outside chance of Tamil Nadu not qualifying for the semis even if they finish with six points. For that to happen, Mumbai has to beat Punjab by a margin of higher than 53 runs. Hence, to be on the safer side, Tamil Nadu has to beat Jharkhand by 33+ runs or chase the target with 20+ balls to spare. This will help them to go ahead of Karnataka’s NRR.

3. Mumbai:

Mumbai’s chances of qualifying to the semi-finals will mostly rely on the result of Tamil Nadu-Jharkhand match. If Tamil Nadu goes down against Jharkhand, Mumbai has to win against Punjab irrespective of the margin. However, the calculators will be out for Mumbai if Tamil Nadu defeats Jharkhand.

Tamil Nadu winning against Jharkhand by 1-run or completing the chase on the last ball:

Mumbai has to beat Punjab by a margin of 53 and more runs or chase down the target with at least 40 balls to go past Tamil Nadu’s NRR. Mumbai’s victory margin scenario will increase with respect to Tamil Nadu’s winning margin.

Tamil Nadu surpassing Karnataka’s NRR with the win against Jharkhand:

Mumbai has to beat Punjab by least 88 runs or chase down the target in less than 10 overs to go past Karnataka’s NRR of +0.762.

Scenarios in Group A:

1. Baroda:

Baroda is currently placed at No.2 in the Group A but there is only one scenario for them in order to reach the semi-finals. They will be hoping that Maharashtra will lose against Haryana which is very much possible considering the form of both teams. In such a case, Baroda will be tied on four points with the winner of Delhi-Rajasthan match. Baroda earns an edge on the head-to-head tiebreaker as they defeated both Delhi and Rajasthan in the Super League. Currently, their NRR is worst among all teams in Group A.

2. Delhi:

With an NRR as high as 0.767, the Delhi team has got a great advantage to edge past the teams on NRR. However, they are in an interesting position of rooting for a win of their rival, Maharashtra. Baroda will go through to semis if Maharashtra can’t get better of Haryana. Both Rajasthan and Delhi losing against Baroda but defeating Maharashtra in this Super League is the reason for this scenario.

In fact, Delhi has to ensure they win against Rajasthan by a decent margin to make things tougher for Maharashtra. If Delhi wins by a shortest of margins, Maharashtra will need to beat Haryana by 80+ runs or chase down a target with more than 11 overs to spare. Hence, the bigger the win of Delhi, will be tougher the requirement for Maharashtra.

3. Rajasthan:

Rajasthan, who started the Super League with back to back losses, are now in contention for semis after defeating Maharashtra. They have to win against Delhi at any cost and hope Maharashtra to beat Haryana just like Delhi due to head-to-head tiebreaker scenario.

Rajasthan has to win this match by a good margin as well. If they reach the target on the last ball or win by a 1-run margin against Delhi, the Maharashtra team will need only a 15-run win or has to complete the chase inside 18 overs for making it to the knockouts.

4. Maharashtra:

If Maharashtra wins their match against Haryana, they will be tied on four points with Baroda and the winner of Delhi-Rajasthan match. Maharashtra will require a big win as their NRR is only -0.597 ahead of the last day in the Super League.

If Delhi beats Rajasthan:

Maharashtra has to beat by Haryana by at least 80-run margin if they bat first and have to achieve the target inside 9 overs while chasing. These scenarios are applicable only if Delhi win by shortest of margins. Bigger the Delhi’s win over Rajasthan, an even bigger win will be required for Maharashtra.

If Rajasthan beats Delhi:

If Rajasthan defeats Delhi by narrowest of margins, then Maharashtra will need to complete their chase against Haryana with least two overs to spare. The margin has to be around 15 runs if they would be batting first.