World Cup 2019: How Bangladesh will not qualify for the semi-finals even after winning remaining two matches

Among all the ten participating teams in the 2019 World Cup, Aaron Finch’s Australia is the only one to have sealed a berth in the semi-finals. Almost 80 per cent of the games in the league stage are over and three spots are still up for grabs. One of the teams that will be competing for one of the spots, is Bangladesh. The Tigers have never made the semis of the mega event and it would be a historic moment if they go that far.

For a chunk of time, Australia, India, New Zealand and England have managed to hold on to their positions in the top four. Even as the Aussies are through, the Men in Blue and the Black Caps also look favourites to play the semis. It would only need a miracle for them to get eliminated. The Tigers’ major threat for the time being seems to be hosts England, who lost their last two matches against Sri Lanka and the Aussies.

Tigers up against India and Pakistan

In 2015, Mashrafe Mortaza inspired Bangladesh to their best ever World Cup campaign, taking them to the quarter-final where they lost to India. Prior to the ongoing edition of the mega event, not many would’ve given them a chance to go into the top four. However, they were being deemed as the dark horses and by no means, mere pushovers. At times, they have shown sheer domination and have thumped oppositions.

Inspired by Shakib Al Hasan’s all-round brilliance, supported by contributions from the other experienced campaigners like Mushfiqur Rahim and others, Bangladesh are placed fifth in the table with three wins. Their next match is against Virat Kohli’s India on July 2 at Edgbaston in Birmingham. If Mashrafe’s men end up losing that game, then they need a lot of other results in their favour in order to avoid elimination.

The pitch in Birmingham has turned out to be spin-friendly and with the likes of Mosaddek Hossain, Mehidy Hasan Miraz, and Shakib in their ranks, Bangladesh has the ammunition in their armoury. Even the likes of Mustafizur Rahman can come in handy on a track, which has shown a slow nature. Their batting has done well and a collective effort could see them even topple the Men in Blue, defying the odds.

As far as their last game against Pakistan at the Lord’s on June 5 is concerned, the Tigers have statistics in their favor. Since March 2014, Pakistan has never beaten Bangladesh in an ODI, losing their last four games. However, with Pakistan gaining momentum, winning against South Africa and New Zealand, the task for the Tigers won’t be easy. But, one can’t write off Bangladesh just yet, though luck needs to favour them.

Here’s how Bangladesh will get knocked out despite winning both their matches:

Pre-Requisite:

Bangladesh needs to win both their match against India and Pakistan

Scenarios

England beat both India and New Zealand. In that scenario, Bangladesh will be stranded on 11 points and see England topple them with 12 points.

Pakistan win both their matches and in that case, Bangladesh will be tied with them on 11 points. However, the Tigers have a NRR of -0.133 compared to Pakistan’s -0.976. Hence, Pakistan needs to win by massive margins in order to overtake Bangladesh on NRR.

Sri Lanka win all their remaining three matches versus India, South Africa and the Windies. In that case, the Lankans will be on 12 points and edge out Bangladesh with 11 points.