WTC 2023-25 Final Qualification Scenarios: Nine teams compete for two spots

The purest form of the game aka Test cricket is back and in its full flight after the T20 cricket carnival. After teams battling out for the T20 glory where Team India emerged as the world champions, for quite some time now teams have started to move ahead from their limited-overs blues and shift their focus to the red cherry.

The sweat and grind with the red ball out in the sun started with England pummeling West Indies at home. Thereafter, the Caribbean side failed to get their name in the victory column even in their backyard as South Africa clinched the Test series. Bizarrely, things went topsy turvy politically for the Asian nation Bangladesh in recent times which posed several what-ifs and buts regarding their tour to Pakistan.

However, the Bangla Tigers remained committed to playing Test cricket away from home. On the other side, another Asian nation Sri Lanka are raring to go against England in the hope of repeating the heroics of 2014. As of now, 13 series have been played out and another 14 series left will decide the fate of the teams in the ongoing World Test Championship 2023-2025 (WTC) cycle.

Now the bigger question which has been playing possums in the mind of cricket fans has been- what do all the major Test-playing nations need to do to stay in the hunt of booking their berth for the WTC final? Let's find out:

India

Currently, Team India are leading the WTC points table with an impressive win percentage of 68.52%. However, their road to claiming the pole spot remains tough as they will head to Australia after playing a couple of games at home. Statistically speaking, the Indians have 10 Tests left to play with 120 points up for grabs.

Interestingly, the last time when Team India qualified for the coveted WTC final, their win percentage was 58.8. Hence to stay in the top spot they need another 63 points. Notably, for the unversed, for winning a Test, teams get 12 points while if the match ends in a tie, the teams get four points. Regarding their remaining schedule, India will play five Tests at home against Bangladesh and New Zealand, respectively. While the remaining five Tests will be down under.

Australia

The defending champions displayed a dominating performance against India in the last edition of the World Test Championship final. They have continued their good run in Test cricket while facing some challenges during The Ashes series against England last year. Though the Aussies retain the urn after a drawn series, one factor has been constantly irking them for the past few years. The most mind-boggling fact is that they were beaten by Team India in their backyard quite convincingly.

Now looking at their remaining schedule, Australia will cross swords against India in their den yet again. Given that their winning percentage is over 60 putting them in the second spot, they will need to do something special in November 2024, to gain at least 47 points out of the available 84 points in the remaining seven Tests to finish as one of the top two teams. After playing India, they will fly to Sri Lanka to tussle with them in the two away-from-home Tests. Hence to get through to the WTC final, Australia will now need to win at least three games or four which will be even better for their final prospects while three draws will get the job done for them.

New Zealand

The dark horses have featured in six Tests so far in the current WTC cycle. Out of them they have tasted victory thrice and have conceded as many losses. Hence it has been like a see-saw journey for New Zealand given their win percentage has been 50. However, their road to the WTC final seems quite tough given that out of the remaining eight Tests, they will play against India in their backyard in three Tests.

While looking at the overall equation, New Zealand need to accumulate 65 points at least out of the available 96 points to stay in the WTC final contention. While they will play another two Tests away from home in Sri Lanka, they will still have three Tests left to play against England in home conditions. Hence, to qualify for the WTC final, New Zealand need to win at least five games while a few draws will not hurt their case.

Sri Lanka

The Island nation are currently touring England. Though they have the same win percentage as New Zealand, out of six Test series, Sri Lanka have featured in only two so far. Hence, they still have nine Tests to go which means that they have 108 points at max up for grabs.

Out of which, they need at least 60 points to stay in the hunt. To qualify for the WTC final, in totality, they first need to ensure they have a good Test series against England and South Africa, respectively, in a bid to win at least five to six games. While in cases of a draw, three games ending in a tie will still give them ample room to make the cut for the WTC final.

South Africa

The Rainbow nation have been in fine form as they trumped West Indies in their backyard. However, one factor which is making their road to the WTC final tough has been the number of allotted games for them in the current World Test Championship cycle. South Africa will have a stiff competition ahead as they had only 12 fixtures to play. On the contrary, England were allotted 22 games in all.

Now when it comes to the qualification scenario, South Africa will need to win at least five games out of six games to collect the minimum required 59 points to stay in the race for the WTC final. However, the good news for them is that only two Tests they will play away from home against Bangladesh. The remaining games will be played at home against Sri Lanka and Pakistan, which enables them to leverage the home conditions to reach the 60% mark.

Pakistan

Out of all the teams, Pakistan probably have the best chance to try to finish in the top two of the WTC points table given that out of the remaining nine Tests, seven games will be played at home. Hence after playing against Sri Lanka and Australia away from home, they will now play Bangladesh, England and West Indies in home conditions. Hence, the Asian side will look to exploit the conditions to their advantage.

Regarding their qualification propositions, Pakistan will have 108 points to accumulate and out of it, they will need 79 points meaning six wins under their belt along with a few draws will help them to dream of the WTC final berth.

England

The Bazball phenom gripped the world as England changed their approach to playing Test cricket. However, in terms of yielding results, things have not been in their favour. Adding to their woes, the Three Lions also got docked 19 points for slow over-rate offence. As a result, instead of having a win percentage of nearly 49%, they have ended up at 36.54% at this juncture.

Currently, England have nine games left to play in the ongoing WTC cycle. This essentially implies that they have 108 points to fight for and need 102 points to have any chance of finishing in the top two spots of the WTC points table. Hence, to qualify now the English side will need to win eight games and a sole draw to salvage with still be enough to compete for the summit clash.

Bangladesh

Amidst political turmoil, Bangladesh are hoping to do something special in Pakistan to start with. Their route is certainly one of the toughest among the other seven teams given that out of the remaining eight Tests, six Tests they will be playing away from home. Barring two Tests against South Africa which they will play at home to finish their cycle, they will need to punch above their weight against Pakistan, India and West Indies, respectively.

When it comes to the qualification scenario, Bangladesh need to collect 75 points out of the available 96 points. Hence, the Bangla Tigers need to win at least six games to climb up the ladder. While two draws will not stop their case for a miraculous WTC final appearance.

West Indies

Once upon a time, one of the fiercest teams in red-ball cricket, West Indies have been grappling with their transition from one generation of players to another for quite a long. Though they have had some rising players in their arsenal, their on-the-field performances in the current WTC cycle do not reflect the same. They sit at the bottom of the points tally with the lowest win percentage of 18.52.

Speaking of their qualification chances, they have four Tests left to play with two away from home and as many at home. But given that they have managed to pick only 20 points out of 108 points, winning all the remaining will still mean that unfortunately, they are out of contention for the WTC final by all means. Even after winning the rest of the fixtures, their win percentage will shoot up to slightly more than 43%, which will not help their case.