CT 2017: Group A - Qualification Scenarios

The Group A in the Champions Trophy 2017 which was regarded as Group of Death is indeed going towards keeping its reputation but some credit does go to rain which affected multiple washouts. The group with Australia, New Zealand, England and Bangladesh had two games with results; England vs Bangladesh and England vs New Zealand while the Australia vs New Zealand and Australia vs Bangladesh games ended as washouts.

After the completion of 4 out of the 6 group matches, only England has confirmed their entry into the semis, that too as the group topper and will play the semi-final on June 14th at the Cardiff. Now the remaining 3 teams will fight out for the other spot to make it through to the semis with plenty of possibilities wide and open in the two games.

Here we look at all the possible scenarios for the teams in the Group A:

Note:

If the points are equal, the team with more wins will go through.

If they are still equal, equation goes down to NRR comparison.

If still equal, the team with higher seeding goes through.

Australia:

From being lucky against New Zealand, Australia went down unlucky in the game with Bangladesh as both the matches ended in a washout. Among the three teams fighting for the one remaining spot, Australia is in a strong position to grab it. They now face England in the final league game, the last for them in the group stages as well. Hence they will have an advantage of knowing the parameters for their qualification.

Case 1: Bangladesh winning against New Zealand

Australia should win their final game against England.

Case 2: Bangladesh losing against New Zealand

Australia should win their final game against England.

Case 3: Points shared (washout/tie) in Bangladesh and New Zealand game

a) Australia-England game can end in a washout or tie

b) Australia can lose their final game against England but by 20 or fewer runs.

Bangladesh:

Had Bangladesh bowled 4 more overs against Australia, they would have been the first team to be knocked out from Champions Trophy even before half the league games were done. However, now they have a pretty good chance of making it to the semis but it all depends on how they perform in their final league game against New Zealand.

Case 1: Bangladesh winning against New Zealand

Australia should not win their final game against England; a washout or even a tie would work for Bangladesh.

Case 2: Points shared (washout/tie) in Bangladesh and New Zealand game

Australia should lose their final game against England by 21-run or bigger margin.

Case 3: Bangladesh losing against New Zealand

Bangladesh can book flight tickets for getting back home!

New Zealand:

After a huge loss against England, New Zealand have deteriorated their chances of making it to the semis as their Net Run Rate also took a hit with the result. The Kiwis now have less room of hopes from the England-Australia game.

Case 1: New Zealand winning against Bangladesh

Australia should not win their final game against England; a loss, a washout or even a tie would work.

Case 2: Bangladesh do not lose against New Zealand (Bangladesh win/washout/tie)

New Zealand can accompany any other team which is out of the contention for the semi-finals to get back home.