ICC World Cup 2019: How can Pakistan still make it to the semi-finals?

England ensured themselves a semi-final berth in the World Cup 2019 with a comfortable 119-run victory against New Zealand in Chester-le-Street. This is thus the first time since the 1992 edition that the English side has made it to a World Cup semi-final. This leaves Pakistan and New Zealand fighting for the 4th place finish in the points table. The Kiwis are currently placed at No.4 with 11 points while Pakistan has nine points with one more game to be played.

Pakistan to take on Bangladesh at the Lord’s on Thursday where they need more than a win. New Zealand’s NRR currently reads 0.175 while Pakistan’s is well behind at -0.792. Despite the hat-trick of wins, the Pakistan NRR didn’t improve much as their victories came at small margins. The huge defeat in the first game against the Windies will continue to haunt them as they are about 300 runs behind the Blackcaps at the moment.

What does Pakistan need?

For qualifying to the semis, Pakistan needs to bat first and win by more than 300 runs. They need to score a minimum of 308 runs to stay in the SF race going into the second innings. The best possible chance will be scoring more than 400 runs and keep Bangladesh down to a low score. Considering the tournament form, it would be really tough for Pakistan to restrict Bangladesh to anything under 200. The former champions have never posted 400 in an ODI and will have to set new benchmarks to have some chance at recreating their 1992 triumph.

Can’t bowl first:

If Pakistan bowl first, there is no way they can go past New Zealand’s run-rate. Even in the worst possible case when Bangladesh get bowled out for 0 and Pakistan complete the chasing with wide/no-ball, their NRR will fall short by 0.05. This means Bangladesh captain Mashrafe Mortaza by calling the right side of the coin and electing to bat first, can effectively knock Pakistan out of the tournament. This is pretty much possible given the teams chasing at the Lord’s have struggled in the tournament.

Here are Pakistan’s scenarios against Bangladesh to qualify for the semi-final: