New Zealand v Pakistan, 2nd Test Preview: Bowlers hold the key for Pakistan

New Zealand is all but set to win their first Test series against Pakistan after more than 30 years. This might be the most biased way to begin an analysis of an upcoming match. But, reality can be hard to face.

The aforementioned things were concluded after looking at the way Pakistan performed in the opening Test at Christchurch. A fragile batting unit showed they were very vulnerable on green pitches. The fact which should bother Pakistan is that the track has only become greener at the Seddon Park, Hamilton. The fast bowlers were not at par with their Black Caps counterparts and failed to strike fear.

A win or draw the second and final Test in Hamilton that begins on Friday will see New Zealand achieve a feat that eluded them for so many years in their home turf – defeat Pakistan on their home turf. New Zealand had last won a series against Pakistan in 1985.

But, then Pakistan cannot be written off too quickly, at least for the sake of their unpredictability factor. So, all of these aforementioned things might hold no weight if…Pakistan bowlers spring up a surprise. Mohammad Amir, Sohail Khan, Rahat Ali and Wahab Riaz are equally competent and carry the expectation of winning it for their team.

Toss will be crucial. The team which will bowl first will enjoy the benefit of using track first and ruffle the opposition.  The record speaks in favour of the fact. The teams that have won it in the last five Tests have put the opposition to bat first and won the match.

It has to be noted that when the two sides met in Hamilton six years ago, Pakistan had indeed won the match after it induced a collapse where they snapped eight wickets for 50 runs in its second innings to emerge victorious by 10 wickets. The unpredictability factor is what will keep the interest in the game alive and kicking.

Team combinations:

New Zealand

New Zealand isn’t likely to make any big changes apart from the spin department where we might see Mitchell Santner swapping places with leg-spinner Todd Astle. The left arm spinner has recovered from a fractured wrist. With Ross Taylor cleared to play the upcoming game, it was a huge relief.

Rest of the team will likely remain the same. Debutants in the last match, Jeet Raval and Colin de Grandhomme justified their selections. Both the players know the opposition will be better prepared for then and need to produce better performances. Left-arm swing bowler Trent Boult won’t play due to injury which brings in Matt Henry into the team.

Probable XI:

Jeet Raval, Tom Latham, Kane Williamson (C), Ross Taylor, Henry Nicholls, Colin de Grandhomme, BJ Watling (WK), Mitchell Santner/Todd Astle, Tim Southee, Neil Wagner, Matt Henry

Pakistan:

Pakistan will be without Misbah ul Haq, who is unavailable due to personal reasons. He would have not being able to play even pf available after getting handed over a one-match suspension for slow over rate. Losing a player who rescues team with runs in the middle order is a huge setback.

Misbah’s absence means Mohammad Rizwan will get a chance. Sharjeel loses out for being an opener and it sees very unlikely that Coach Mickey Arthur would like to fiddle with the opening pair. Azhar Ali will lead the team in his absence and as he mentioned in the post-match conference at Christchurch, the batting order needs to put up more run on the scoreboard to gain an advantage.

Younis Khan will probably shoulder a lot of responsibility under these circumstances. The bowling department as mentioned earlier will be the difference between win and loss and will see no change. While batting is equally important, getting the 20 wickets as soon as possible will surely result in an easy win. The Pakistan bowlers have the capability to exploit the conditions.

Probable XI:

Sami Aslam, Azhar Ali (C), Babar Azam, Younis Khan, Mohammad Rizwan, Asad Shafiq, Sarfraz Ahmed (WK), Rahat Ali, Yasir Shah, Mohammad Amir, Sohail Khan

Stats:

• Until this match, Trent Boult had not missed a New Zealand Test since early 2012 – he had played in 44 on the trot.
• New Zealand has lost three of their last five Tests at Seddon Park – they beat West Indies and Sri Lanka and lost to Australia, Pakistan and South Africa
• Mohammad Amir’s 3 for 43 in the first innings at Hagley Oval was his best analysis since his return from suspension.
• Pakistan has not lost a series since August 2014, when they were defeated 0-2 in Sri Lanka