Ranji Trophy 2016-17 knockout qualification scenario

The league stage of the India’s premier first-class tournament, Ranji Trophy 2016-17 is just about to end. With the 9th and final round of the league games due to be played, only 3 teams have sealed their quarterfinal spots while 14 teams fight it out for the remaining 5 places across the 3 groups.

Halfway through, the 2016-17 season Gujarat-Bengal and Hyderabad-Tripura games were postponed due to smog in Delhi. However, BCCI revised their decision and allotted a point each to the 4 sides on playing condition terms. Another game between Odisha and Jharkhand in Tamil Nadu has been rescheduled due to the passing of Tamil Nadu CM J Jayalalitha. Here we look at the possible scenarios of those teams.

Group A:

Teams qualified – Mumbai (29 points)

Teams in contention – Gujarat (25 points), Tamil Nadu (23 points), Madhya Pradesh (19 points), Punjab (18 points) and Bengal (18 points).

Gujarat:

Gujarat will need to win their final league game vs Tamil Nadu or at least draw it and take first innings lead to qualify independent of other results. In case if they concede first innings lead and manage to draw the game, Gujarat would be hoping Madhya Pradesh doesn’t pick up a bonus point win to make it to quarters along with Tamil Nadu, who have a better NRR than Gujarat as of now. In case if Madhya Pradesh doesn’t win at all and neither of Bengal and Punjab secure a bonus point win, Gujarat will be on a safe plane despite losing outright in their last game.

Tamil Nadu:

Tamil Nadu are in a similar position like Gujarat. They will need an outright win to confirm their berth else the TN side would be hoping Madhya Pradesh doesn’t bag an outright win with a bonus point if they had to settle down with 3 points against Gujarat. Tamil Nadu should ensure they take more than 1 point from the game because if they end up with 24 (or 23 points in case of a loss), the other sides registering an outright win will go through having more points or more wins than TN. In case both Mumbai-Punjab and Bengal-Madhya Pradesh games ending in a draw, Tamil Nadu will be making into the quarters even if they lose outright to Gujarat.

Madhya Pradesh:

Madhya Pradesh would need an outright win with a bonus point irrespective of Gujarat vs Tamil Nadu result as the win will put them ahead of Tamil Nadu or on equal with one or both the teams and Madhya Pradesh will go ahead due to more wins. (If Tamil Nadu draw the game taking first innings lead, all 3 could be on 26 points)

Madhya Pradesh can’t go through without a win against Bengal at any cost. If they manage an outright win without a bonus point, they would be hoping Tamil Nadu do not manage more than one point against Gujarat. In this scenario, if Punjab bags a bonus point win, the team with better NRR among MP and Punjab will move ahead.

Bengal and Punjab:

With 18 points each, Bengal and Punjab have the least chance among the 5 teams in the context for the two spots. Like Madhya Pradesh, both these teams will be going out in case of anything less than an outright win. Both teams would take any result except Tamil Nadu taking 3 points on first innings lead and Gujarat taking one point. But before that, they need an outright win in their respective games and they will even need a bonus point if Tamil Nadu manages to defeat Gujarat. If both Bengal and Punjab manage to do it, the team with a better NRR will go ahead.

Group B:

Teams qualified – Jharkhand (32 points) and Karnataka (29 points)

Teams in contention – Odisha (22 points), Delhi (21 points) and Maharashtra (21 points).

Odisha:

Unless a bonus point win for either of Delhi and Maharashtra, Odisha will make it through on basis of an outright win. If in case Delhi manages to win with bonus, Odisha will need to win by a bonus as well since their NRR is way behind Delhi but better than that of Maharashtra. If Odisha gain only 3 points from their last game, they can make it to quarters if the Delhi-Saurashtra and Maharashtra-Karnataka games end in a draw. If Delhi and Maharashtra lose their games, Odisha can make it through even if they gain just one point against Jharkhand.

Delhi:

Despite being a point behind Odisha, Delhi’s has an advantage with the NRR. In case Delhi grab a bonus point win in the last round, they could edge out Odisha, even if they defeat Jharkhand (Odisha shouldn’t get a bonus point). The NRR helps Delhi even in the case they get just one point vs Saurashtra if Odisha sustain a loss and Maharashtra doesn’t manage more than one point. Other scenarios for Delhi will be taking 3 points in the last game with Odisha and Maharashtra facing defeats or settling down with 1 point in the final game.

Maharashtra:

Given their NRR, Maharashtra would need more than 1 point in their last game. If they manage to draw their last game after taking first innings lead, they can make it to the quarters in case Odisha and Delhi don’t get more than 1 point from their respective last games. A win for Maharashtra in the final round will make things easy if remaining two games end in draw. If either Odisha or Delhi win, Maharashtra will also need a win, that too with a bonus point and should try to improve their NRR. No second chance for Maharashtra if Odisha or Delhi win outright with a bonus point.

Group C:

Teams qualified – Technically, no team yet.

Teams in contention – Hyderabad (30 points), Andhra (25 points), Haryana (25 points), Kerala (22 points), Himachal (20 points) and Goa (18 points).

Hyderabad:

With 30 points, Hyderabad are almost there into the quarters. The only way they could end up missing out is if they lose to Andhra in their final league game and Haryana win against Tripura.

Andhra:

An outright win for Andhra will make their way easy irrespective of other results even if they don’t, they gain an advantage of winning an extra game than others. If Andhra manage a draw and take 3 points, they would be hoping Haryana don’t add more than 3 points and Kerala not winning with a bonus point. Even if Andhra end up losing against Hyderabad, they will need the other teams to end with 25 or lesser points i.e. Haryana losing to Tripura and Kerala, Himachal draw or lose their game.

Haryana:

Haryana’s equations are similar to that of Andhra except the fact that they might miss out if they end up equal on points with Andhra. In case they don’t win outright vs Tripura, they will need to get at least 3 points and hope Andhra don’t get more than 1 point vs Hyderabad and Kerala don’t go past Haryana. If Haryana lose their last game, they will be out but will have a slight chance if they manage one point and Andhra lose. In this case, Haryana would want Kerala and Himachal to draw their games at the best.

Kerala:

Kerala’s would need a bonus win against Services if Andhra and Haryana gain 3 points in their respective last round matches. Just an outright win is enough if both Andhra and Haryana draw against their opponent with one of them securing just 1 point. Anything less than a win will see Kerala out of the knockouts spot.

Himachal:

Himachal will need some luck going their way to make it to the quarters. An outright win for any of Andhra, Haryana or Kerala will see Himachal knocked off. In fact, they would need Andhra and Haryana to just manage 1 point in their final round match. In this case, Himachal can make it through if they can win outright even without a bonus point since their NRR is higher and they will be at levels with Andhra – 3 wins.

Goa:

Quite opposite to Hyderabad, Goa has only one scenario that can take them into quarters which would be no less than a miracle. Goa first needs to win against Himachal with a bonus point and hope that Andhra and Haryana suffer outright defeats and also Kerala manage a maximum of 3 points. In this case, Goa will be tied with Andhra, Haryana and probably Kerala as well with 25 points. Having 3 wins, Goa and Andhra will be ahead of the other 2 which brings NRR in picture. Their net rate is less than Andhra so they will have to keep an eye on the NRR as well.